India and the US are now in the final stretch of a “mini” or interim trade agreement, with both sides aiming to clinch it before the looming July 9 deadline, which would trigger the reactivation of suspended US reciprocal tariffs.

Negotiators have largely resolved most issues, but agriculture and dairy remain off the negotiating table—India has firmly marked them as red lines, citing the protection of roughly 80 million small dairy farmers, food safety, and rural livelihoods. New Delhi is ready to make reciprocal tariff cuts on industrial and labour‑intensive exports—such as footwear, garments, leather, and petrochemicals—but refuses to open its dairy, grain, or GM‑crop sectors .

The sticking points hinge on the US seeking access for goods like dairy, corn, soy, poultry, ethanol, and GM crops—each met with resistance from India, which fears those could undercut smallholder farmers and conflict with market preferences.With the broad contours of reciprocal tariff reductions now established, a swift finalization is expected “within 48 hours.” That would avert the 26% reinstatement deadline on July 9 and serve as a critical first tranche before broader trade negotiations resume by autumn.

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